New listings and pending sales have come together to almost tie this week, already declining so you can’t see a noticeable Thanksgiving dip. I had to double check multiple offers… they have been the same for the last three weeks. Number of price changes dropped a little as sales that cancelled and came back on the market increased a bit this week.
Showings dropped as expected, but not as significantly as the last two years. In talking to other agents, feedback is showings are still happening just not such a frenzy. Some properties are still in high demand resulting in multiple offers, but the $350k-$500k range is lingering on the market… perhaps the segment hardest hit by rising mortgage rates. Inspections are back.
We have been feeling a slowdown in the housing market since mortgage interest rates started to climb mid year. Inventory has been slowly rising, but not primarily because of an increase in new listings as you might think. The primary reason inventory is growing is because properties don’t sell as quickly so remain part of active inventory longer.
Many speculated that there would be a flood of foreclosures similar to the crash in 2008 after forbearance granted during the pandemic was lifted. But that hasn’t been the case. The Mortgage Bankers Association says…
“For the second quarter in a row, the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – declining to 3.45%. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also dropped in the third quarter to levels further below their historical averages.”
While foreclosures are higher now than they were last year at this time when foreclosures were paused, they are still well below typical years, like 2017-2019 before the pandemic. Read more about Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market in our blog at Keeping Matters Current.
With the holiday season and the end of the year upon us, many thoughts turn to what is ahead in 2023. Realtor.com published its Housing Forecast 2023 this week… brief summary and link to the full detailed report below.
Sharlene Hensrud, RE/MAX Results – shensrud@homesmsp.com
2023 Housing Market Forecast and Predictions: Homebuying Costs Aren’t Coming Down
2023 could be a tough year for buyers and sellers, according to the national Housing Forecast 2023 from realtor.com.
- typical mortgage payment will be 28% higher
- average mortgage rate will be 7.4%, retreating to 7.1% by year end
- home prices will continue to rise, but at a slower rate of 5.4%
- inventory will rise 22.8%, stilling lagging behind pre-pandemic levels but giving buyers more choices
- anticipate that existing home sales will be the lowest since 2014
- rent growth is expected to continue
- affordability will outweigh other search criteria, with an increase in cross-market shopping
- more homes for sale, homes will likely take longer to sell, not as much competition
- more negotiation resulting in more buyer-friendly concessions