COVID-19 impact on the real estate market May 8, 2020

stayathome-8may

The coronavirus stay-at-home directive was extended to May 18, but restrictions are gradually being lifted so it doesn’t feel quite the same as it did a month ago. The real estate market is also showing a shift.

Market Stats x2-2020-05-08

New listings jumped to the highest weekly level since June 2019. Coming soon listings climbed for the third straight week, to the highest level since I started recording coming soon listings in 2018.

New listings are doing better in our Twin Cities market than in much of the rest of the country compared to last year. Realtor.com reported that the Northeast saw a drop of 59.4% in April, the Midwest saw a 49.5% drop, the West posted a 44.1% drop and the South a 31.4% decrease.

Minneapolis-St. Paul did better than most when comparing 50 metro areas. We came in #47 at only 18.3% below last year compared to Milwaukee in the #1 position with an 80.0% drop in new listings.

Showings also continue to increase as our frozen market shows signs of thawing. We still haven’t caught up with last year but we are on track to do so.

Northstar showings-may08

Pending sales increased a little, but not as much as listings. That shouldn’t be too surprising, it takes a while for showings to convert to offers to convert to pending sales after inspections.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage purchase applications rose for three weeks in a row, 6% over last year the last week in April. Refinancing mortgage activity dropped 2% compared to the previous week… but still 210% higher than the same week a year ago!

following information pulled from posts on our blog at Keeping Current Matters

We expect unemployment numbers to be released today will be alarming, hitting a peak this country has never seen before. There is hope, however, that as businesses reopen a large percentage of people will become employed again.

The good news is that additional unemployment claims nationwide decreased every week in April.

KCM-unemployment1-2

Most experts predict that while unemployment is high right now, it won’t be that way for long. The length of unemployment during this crisis is projected to be significantly shorter than the duration seen in the Great Recession and the Great Depression.

One of the biggest questions right now is whether our current historic unemployment rate will initiate a new surge of foreclosures in the market.

It’s a very real fear. Despite the staggering number of claims, there are actually many reasons why we are not likely to see the significant number of foreclosures like we did during the housing crash twelve years ago. The amount of equity homeowners have today is a leading differentiator in the current market.

Today, according to John Burns Consulting, 58.7% of homes in the U.S. have at least 60% equity. That number is drastically different than it was in 2008 when the housing bubble burst. The last recession was painful, and when prices dipped, many found themselves owing more on their mortgage than what their homes were worth. Homeowners simply walked away at that point. Now, 42.1% of all homes in this country are mortgage-free, meaning they’re owned free and clear. Those homes are not at risk for foreclosure.

In addition, CoreLogic notes the average equity mortgaged homes have today is $177,000. That’s a significant amount that homeowners won’t be stepping away from, even in today’s economy.

KCM-equity1-2

In essence, the amount of equity homeowners have today positions them to be in a much better place than they were in 2008.

The fear and uncertainty we feel right now are very real, and this is not going to be easy. We can, however, see strength in our current market through homeowner equity that has not been there in the past. That may be a bright spark to help us make it through.

Written By

I love what I do! Highly insightful, analytical and creative, there is nothing I love more than helping you find the right solution for your real estate transition. My mission is to serve my clients with honesty and integrity, exceeding their expectations in service and support… and to help others by donating a portion of every transaction to Habitat for Humanity.

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