Here is a sampling of what I have been seeing and reading about in various places after three weeks of #stayathome.
First, this week’s stats…
Both new listings and pending listings continued to inch down this week, while price changes inched up.
Keep in mind that pending sales can’t happen without properties to buy and inventory continues to be very low. What I see as significant is they are inching rather than jumping down. Coming Soon and Back on the Market listings fell again similar to last week, following a parallel trend. Keep in mind the overall numbers in this chart are comparatively low. Coming Soon listings dropped from 359 last week to 330 this week, about an 8% drop so not as significant as the chart may make it appear.
Showing activity is popping up again. I know I had three buyers call me in the last few days asking if I was doing any showings. They were all serious buyers so I said yes, depending on the property and showing restrictions set by the sellers. All three were vacant, so better than going to get groceries! COVID rules are face masks, hand sanitizer/gloves, only the buyer (no children, friends/family) so small numbers in the property at a time for social distancing. As it turned out, one of the listings had only been on the market for one day and was already sold!
RE/MAX Results Twin Cities offices reflect a similar showing trend.
Our RE/MAX Results CEO, Brenda Tushaus, shared these insights…
- Active buyers are still encountering multiple offer situations (when I talked to the listing agent of a property I am showing today only a few hours after it hit the market, he said I was the third call he got in as many hours)
- There are too many unknowns, and people’s behaviors are reflecting that
- Economists predict this recovery will look more like a “U”… down, stay down at the bottom for some time (think #stayathome period), and eventually a move back up
- China’s housing market is already springing back to life following their nationwide shutdown
- Recent National Association of REALTORS Flash Survey showed that approximately 60% of home buyers and sellers are delaying for a couple of months
- According to CNBC, stocks rallied again on Thursday last week after the Federal Reserve announced a $2.3 trillion effort to boost local governments and small and mid-sized businesses, helping the S&P 500 notch its best week since 1974; the Dow clinched its 7th-best week ever. This unexpected jump indicates confidence in our national plan to keep the virus at bay.
- Our showing activity is starting to climb back up, a 19% increase last week over the previous week
- Sellers who can wait are waiting
- When the virus slows down, the housing market will pick back up
Don’t miss Leslie’s post about how the mortgage market has been changing, with requirements changing almost daily and jumbo loans ($510,400+) nearly impossible to get right now. More covid-19 updates! Mortgage market!
Other national opinions I have been reading that Housing isn’t as doomed as it may seem…
- Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group forecast 14.7% less sales this year
- Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, suggests a solid-but-incomplete recovery exiting 2020
- Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS, says a lot of uncertainty remains, but predicts that mortgage rates will remain at historically low levels through the year, with sales down around 5-10% in 2020
Aaron Geh from Delta Media Group which tracks online real estate search patterns, shared data which indicates Early Signs of the Real Estate Market Comeback from COVID-19
- In the initial phase of the pandemic, online search activity dropped off significantly for real estate
- In the last few weeks there has been a positive upward swing in organic search activity
- The luxury market seemed to take a pretty significant hit overall
- Trending data seems to indicate the worst is behind us, with cautious optimism for sustained growth
NAR (National Association of REALTORS) conducted a Flash Survey: Economic Pulse April 12-13. Follow the link to read the full survey which also includes rental information, here are a few highlights…
- Â Serious buyers are out there
- Previously, buyers looked at 9 homes before purchasing, now down to 3
- Buyers are buying homes without ever physically seeing the property
- 60% report buyers are pressing pause for a couple months
- 57% report sellers are delaying their sale for a couple months
- Homes prices remain stable
- 75% of REALTORS said their sellers are not reducing the price to attract buyers
- But 63% said buyers are expecting a decline in home prices, with the largest portion expecting a decline of 5-10%
The majority of sellers are changing how their home is viewed while it remains on the market as reflected in the chart below.
Until next week…
Sharlene Hensrud, RE/MAX Results, shensrud@homesmsp.com
