For some time I have had this image of a giant log jam building…homes for sale piling up…sellers waiting to sell…buyers waiting for indicators that it was time to buy.
Is the log jam starting to loosen? Maybe. Positive market signs seem to indicate we are heading towards a healthier regional real estate market…and some of my experiences this week also point to some movement in that direction.
- Pending sales continue to show increases over last year…up 17.5% in the last 3 months over the same period last year!
- Active listings continue to be down compared to last year…down 9.2% in the last 3 months, with last week lagging 11.2% behind last year
- The months supply of inventory continues its decline…down 13.8% from last year to 7.7 months (the market is considered balanced at a 5-month supply)…only price ranges above $500K show an increase in supply over last year
- Although median prices dropped 18.7% in 2008, that percentage was heavily skewed by foreclosure and short-sale prices…prices for traditional properties with no bank involvement dropped only 2.6% year-over-year!
Condos are the only housing type where sales are down compared to last year, but I saw some positives in that market yesterday…
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I helped a buyer write an offer on a foreclosure condo…and learned there were 7 other offers!
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I showed other clients a condo in a building where two units were pending and one closed in December (NOT foreclosures)…prior to that the last sale was in June of 2007, with 17 cancelled and expired listings in the last two years
I heard from multiple sources this week that the silver lining in the recent heavy layoffs is that they are often a late-cyle indicator, meaning they most often occur when the worst is almost over. At a seminar this week, a speaker from the financial industry reminded us of the cyclical nature of the market…recessions are normal. Wikipedia says we have had 17 recessions since 1919 with an average duration of 13 months…what goes down will go back up.
Sharlene Hensrud, RE/MAX Results – Email – Website
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