Market Update - median sale price continues up, pending sales down | HomesMSP

🖨 Print Article

Median sale price continued its steady march upward in June to $182,000, to the highest median sale price in nearly two years.

It is a welcome relief to see median prices this year finally higher than the previous years rather than continually shifting downward.

Unfortuantely, this isn't really an overall upward shift in prices but rather is an indication of the shift away from such strong sales in the under $120,000 category… which is still a good sign. This marks the first time since January 2008, when MAAR starting releasing this data, that the percent change in sales under $120,000 is less than the previous 12 months. It was at +138.4% in January 2008, peaked at +221.3% in January 2009, was down to +81.8% in January 2010… and now finally dropped to -3.7%.

New listings bounced up again in June. After the big surge of new listings in March and April trying to catch the end of the first-time homebuyer tax credit buyers… and the natural drop following the shift… hopefully the market is settling back into a more 'normal' mode. I know I see more 'traditional' sellers coming back into the marketplace after holding back the last couple years.

Closed sales were almost the same as last June, marking the virtual end of the tax credit… although we will have a few tax credit straggling sales through September due to the closing date extension.

What may be more significant is the drop in pending sales… which is a predictor of future closed sales. Pending sales crashed in May… to be expected immediately following the rush for buyers to beat the tax credit deadline the end of April. Although they didn't drop as much in June they did still continue to drop. These two drops will likely result in a drop in closed sales in the coming months.

I am not really surprised by these numbers because just like listings, it reflects a shift in which month buyers chose to buy because of the tax credit. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months. After the abnormal external influences of the last few years, it will take a while for the market to readjust itself to a new 'normal'… whatever that is.

The total number of homes for sale continues its drift upward, an effect of sales not keeping up with the new listings. It is normal for the supply to arc upward at this time of year…the test will be to see if the sales can keep up to give the supply a normal arc down again.

The overall months supply of inventory is at 7.4 this month, an increase from 6.7 last month. A balanced market is considered to have a 5-6 month supply, so the market is again tipping in favor of the buyer. That, coupled with unbelievably low interest rates, makes this a great time for buyers in a position to buy.

Only the supply of houses increased this month, with houses and townhouses both at 7.2 months supply of inventory… they have been tied the last three months.

The figures above are based on statistics for the combined 13-county Twin Cities metropolitan area released by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors. Click here for links to local reports for 125 metro area communities.